Michael Thomas is coming off a disappointing season and could very well be on the verge of having another. However, this year fantasy football owners are unlikely to be like upset as we already know Thomas’ injury status ahead of the season. Last year Thomas suffered a sprained ankle after playing in Week 1 (and a subsequent hamstring strain later in the year) and ended up playing just six games in total. Thomas wasn’t quite right after playing those six games and ended the regular season on the injured reserve to prepare for the playoffs. It was a huge disappointment after his record-breaking season in 2019 when he set the single-season receptions record with 149 catches. As such, its fantastic outlook for 2021 (and its ranking) continues to decline.
This year Thomas already has several issues working against him. First, he will be sidelined again because of his ankle after choosing to have the operation very late in the offseason. His decision was said to have been the result of a rift with the team. Although Thomas did not publicize his frustration, other than a cryptic tweet, he did liked a few tweets on Twitter which appear to indicate he was angry with the Saints’ medical staff.
DOMINATE YOUR PROJECT: Ultimate 2021 Cheat Sheet
Then there’s also the question of whether Thomas will even be as productive as he was before now that Drew Brees has retired. The Saints have a quarterback battle between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill, and whoever gets to start will have a huge impact on every Saints receiver.
Below, we’ll dive a little deeper into Thomas’ fantastic outlook for 2021.
STANDARD FANTASY 2021 RANKS:
quarterback | Back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST | Kick | First 200
How long will Michael Thomas be away?
Thomas underwent surgery to repair his ankle ligaments in June, and the NFL Network said at the time that the procedure would come with a four-month recovery time. The report also said Thomas could be sidelined during the regular season for “weeks.”
Saints Beat reporter Nick Underhill came up with a timeline in which he predicted a “worst case scenario” for Thomas would return in late October. Underhill’s “best-case scenario” predicted that Thomas would be ready by the end of September. An arrival at the end of September would mean an appearance in the Week 3 game against the Patriots on September 26. The worst-case scenario of Underhill would essentially mean that Thomas wouldn’t arrive until after the Saints bye in Week 6.
Of course, given Thomas’ issues with the same ankle last year, he’s at a higher risk of making the injury worse and missing more time even after he returns.
PPR FANTASY 2021 RANKS:
quarterback | Back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST | Kick | First 200
Fantastic ranking of Michael Thomas and ADP
SN Fantasy has Michael Thomas among the top 26 wide receivers in standard and PPR formats. He’s still an elite talent as a wide receiver and he’s hands down the best spreader in the Saints roster. Following Thomas on the depth map are Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris. While these three have shown promise, they are all quite inexperienced.
Thomas could also benefit from having Jameis Winston as a quarterback. Drew Brees struggled to throw the ball deep, which led to Thomas’ nickname “tilt boy”. While Thomas will most likely take a hit in the receiving category (don’t expect him to break the NFL record again), his yards per catch should increase with Winston.
Thomas ‘FantasyPros’ ADP is similar to SN’s ranking as it sits around the 25th wide receiver selected, based on August trends. That takes him off the board in the sixth or seventh round of the fantastic 12-team draft.
FANTASY SLEEPING 2021:
quarterback | Back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST | Each team
Will Michael Thomas be traded?
Thomas’ decision to have the surgery relatively late in the offseason was the latest in a series of disagreements between the wide receiver and the Saints. Coach Sean Payton has publicly expressed his frustration with Thomas’s surgery in June, telling media the surgery should have taken place sooner than it did and ending with: “I’m going to stay with it. the.”
A report from Saints Beat writer Jeff Duncan shed light on some of the offseason dramas:
While there have been clear signs of frustration on both sides, they seem to have subsided. A recent report from Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports indicates that Payton and Thomas had a productive meeting to resolve their issues.
“They spoke well of [the issues]”a source told Yahoo Sports.” I think they both think it’s not something that needs to go beyond what’s already there. There was some frustration from both points of view and that was the point of the meeting. “
The Yahoo Sports report also added that their sources said the two sides “are not looking to go their separate ways.” Thus, Thomas is expected to stay on the Saints this season unless another major turning point is made.
FANTASY 2021 AUCTION VALUES (Standard & PPR):
quarterback | Back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST | Kick | Globally
Who benefits from the absence of Michael Thomas?
Alvin Kamara is already a top player, but Thomas’ absence will only strengthen the Saints as a receiving target. Thomas shone on the short side roads, so it’s only natural to expect some of those shorter passes to head to Kamara instead.
As for the receiver, Tre’Quan Smith would be next on the Depths board, but he’s never been one to have a lot of production. Smith is more often complimented on his blocking abilities. Guys like Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris are likely to benefit the most from Thomas’ injury. Harris is a quick option who has been the Saints’ return man, and he showed some promise with high playing time last season. Callaway has been steadily rising on the boards of ADP and could be a PPR specialist.
A more devious possibility is tight end Adam Trautman, who jumps into the starting role after Jared Cook leaves and is said to be in line for even more targets as long as Thomas is out.
2021 FANTASY LEVELS AND DRAFT STRATEGY:
quarterback | Back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D / ST
Michael Thomas’ Fantastic Outlook 2021
Whether it is to draft Thomas really depends on where you are in your draft. All reports say he won’t miss the entire season with injury, and he appears to have settled his issues with the Saints, meaning he won’t hold up or be traded. He’s an elite receiving talent, so he’s sure to have a fantastic impact.
However, Thomas is probably a player you don’t want to hit. Even when he returns from an injury, there is no guarantee that his ankle will remain healthy throughout the year. We saw this happen in 2020 when he returned from injury just to be placed on IR again. The quarterback situation is also a big problem. If Taysom Hill ends up starting, we’d expect a much heavier running game from the Saints, which means fewer targets for Thomas and everyone else. Even if Winston starts off, there is a noticeable difference between Drew Brees – one of the most precise passer in history – and Winston.
There are risks involved in writing Thomas, so it depends on whether you want to try your luck with some top talent early in the intermediate rounds or just go with a safer option that will be in your roster for Weeks 1 and 2 (and at -of the). Think of Thomas as a WR3 on draft day, but you might still have to pay a premium for his potential WR1. That makes him a bet unless he really falls.
