NBA Western Conference finals: Mavericks vs. Warriors odds, Game 4 picks, prediction from expert on 88-36 roll


The Golden State Warriors can book their sixth NBA Finals appearance in the last eight seasons when they face the Dallas Mavericks in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals on Tuesday night. The Warriors took firm control of this 2022 NBA playoff series with their 109-100 win on Sunday. Dallas will now try to become the first team in NBA history to overcome a 3-0 deficit in the postseason. Golden State is also 3-0 against the spread in this series and has a four-game cover streak dating back to the previous round.

Tipoff is set for 9 p.m. ET from American Airlines Center in Dallas. Dallas is listed as a one-point favorite in the latest Mavericks vs. Warriors odds from Caesars Sportsbook, with the over-under set at 215.5. Before locking in any Warriors vs. Mavericks picks and NBA predictions, you need to see what SportsLine expert Matt Severance has to say.

A well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005, Severance is on a stunning run: He is a blistering 88-36 his last 124 NBA money line picks, returning over $2,800 to $100 bettors during that span. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Warriors vs. Mavs, and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavs vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -1
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks over-under: 215.5 points
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks money line: Mavericks -115, Warriors -105
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • GSW: The Warriors are 8-6 against the spread in playoff games
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 9-7 against the spread in playoff games
Featured Game | Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Why the Warriors can cover

Dallas could have trouble getting motivated for this game, especially knowing that no team has ever erased a 3-0 deficit. Golden State will be plenty motivated, as it can guarantee some extra rest heading into the NBA Finals. Luka Doncic has done his best to overcome the Warriors over the last two games, scoring a combined 82 points.

Despite the heroics from Doncic, Dallas still has not had enough firepower to beat the balanced Warriors. Golden State continues to provide Steph Curry and Klay Thompson with support, as Kevon Looney stepped up in Game 2 and Andrew Wiggins stole the spotlight in Game 3. The Warriors have the formula in place to complete the sweep on Tuesday night.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Doncic is the leading scorer in the 2022 NBA playoffs, averaging 32.1 points per game to go along with 9.5 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game. Doncic is also averaging 34.0 points per game in the series against the Warriors, converting 41.4 percent of his 3-point attempts in the process. That comes on the heels of a regular season in which he produced 28.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game. With Doncic at the helm, the Mavericks are scoring well in the playoffs, shooting 37.3 percent from 3-point range with elite ball security. Dallas is committing only 10.5 turnovers per game in the postseason, and rank in the top three of the NBA in turnover avoidance during the 2021-22 regular season.

On the other end, the Mavericks finished in the top eight of the league in defensive efficiency, leading the NBA in 3-pointers allowed (10.9 per game) with top-six marks in 3-point percentage allowed and assists allowed. Dallas is allowing only 8.3 fast break points per game in the postseason, reflecting the team’s stingy transition resistance.

How to make Warriors vs. Mavericks picks

For Game 4 of the Western Conference finals, Severance is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side of the Warriors vs. Mavericks spread to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the expert that has crushed his NBA picks, and find out.