Here are Dave Blezow’s Thanksgiving NFL picks. Home team in CAPS.
DETROIT LIONS (+2.5) over Houston Texans
Trying to not let recency bias get me too down on the Lions. Before last week’s shutout at Carolina, Detroit had scored 20 or more points every week. Matthew Stafford’s torn thumb ligament may be hurting him more than he admits, and the Lions have other injuries on offense. But it’s hard to trust the 3-7 ATS Texans as favorites, and there was some sharp bettor buyback when the line hit 3.
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Washington Football Team (+3) over DALLAS COWBOYS
Ezekiel Elliott says the 3-7 Cowboys are right where they want to be in the NFC East “race” after their upset win at Minnesota. But I’m not sure the Dallas O-line change (moving Zach Martin from right guard to right tackle), which protected Andy Dalton well last week, will have the same effect against the WFT’s fierce front. Dalton was sacked three times before getting injured in a 25-3 whupping at FedEx Field on Oct. 25.